The hottest terminal demand shows strong performan

2022-09-19
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The terminal demand performance was strong, the glass futures price continued to be strong,

the trading position was large, and the main glass contract rose strongly:

on Monday, the remaining materials in the main glass machine head were sorted out with steel laws and steel sheets. The contract performance was strong, and the daily limit was touched during the session, continuing the continuous rising market for nearly three months

part of the production capacity is put into production in summer, but the supply increment is still difficult to match the strong demand:

in summer, many flat glass production lines are ignited and resumed production. However, due to the large amount of cold repair capacity in the first quarter, even though many production lines have been ignited and resumed production in recent two months, the neuron adaptive PID algorithm of production capacity is still lower than that in the same period last year. And there is a certain time difference between the new ignition capacity and the supply increment. Under the market background of strong terminal demand, the supply of flat glass is still in a tight balance

strong terminal demand, high-speed destocking of glass factories and warehouses:

the demand side terminal real estate Rush has greatly boosted the consumption demand of flat glass. In addition, the proportion of the performance consumption of plastic granulation in China to the total industrial energy consumption is almost 1.5% higher than that in the UK. Coupled with the strong restocking demand of midstream traders and deep processing enterprises, the destocking speed of flat glass inventory continues to accelerate. The macro monetary policy is loose, the "golden nine silver ten" of real estate is still expected, and the demand for architectural glass will probably maintain strong toughness

the price difference between glass and soda ash continues to widen, and the multiple matching forces drive the glass price to remain strong:

the ratio of glass to soda ash has hit a record high, but it is difficult for the industry to transfer its voice in a short time, and the price correlation of glass to soda ash has begun to weaken. There is still room for profit after the multi glass to soda ash strategy

strategy suggestions:

unilateral strategy: the valuation of soda ash futures contract is still high, and it is recommended to empty soda ash 2009 contract or 2101 contract

arbitrage strategy: continue to hold the multi glass empty soda arbitrage strategy

risk tip:

the supply end of soda ash has been greatly reduced due to external factors; The production capacity of flat glass increased more than expected; Insufficient delivery capacity of soda ash 09 contract leads to an increase in the fluctuation range of disk price; 2101 insufficient liquidity of contracts leads to increased transaction costs

trading positions increased significantly,

the main contract of glass rose strongly

the contract of glass 09 rose sharply again at the opening of the day, and once hit the daily limit. The final closing price was 1591 yuan/ton, up 3.21%. The main contract price of glass continued to rebound after falling to the lowest level of 1177 yuan in the year from mid April, with a rebound range of 426 yuan in three months, an increase of 36%, and walked out of a fairly smooth upward trend. In the final analysis, it came from the strong recovery of fundamental terminals, driving speculative demand. The listing of soda ash futures also provides market investors with the choice of industrial chain arbitrage strategy for multi glass empty soda ash, further pushing up the price of glass disk

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