The hottest rebound was blocked, and PTA returned

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The rebound was blocked, PTA returned to the decline

pta fell below the downward channel last week and accelerated its decline. Affected by the oversold rebound in the capital market at the beginning of this week, the futures price stabilized and rebounded, but the rebound height was relatively limited

in order to maintain the rebound market, the futures price must make a breakthrough in both transaction and position. However, in recent days, the position of PTA main contracts has not been significantly enlarged, and the overall market remains weak and volatile. In addition, the April economic data released on the 11th showed that CPI rose by 5.3% year-on-year. Although it fell slightly from the 5.4% increase in March, it is still at a higher level than that in steel and non-ferrous metals. The high data will make it difficult to relax the price control measures at the policy level, and the market risk sentiment will be under pressure. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar will also accelerate the adjustment pressure of bulk commodities at home and abroad. The rebound of PTA futures market will end, and the aftermarket will return to weakness. It is suggested that investors continue to maintain the short position mentality

at present, PTA production experiments show that its thermal insulation is better than polystyrene foam, and the production pressure on the industry chain is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches. From the perspective of industrial profit distribution, the upstream PTA is the highest; The midstream polyester industry is affected by the lower willingness of downstream polyester textile enterprises to take goods, and the inventory pressure is greater, followed by the profit margin; However, downstream polyester textile enterprises are facing multiple pressures such as tightening monetary policy, energy conservation and emission reduction tasks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and RMB appreciation, so their profits are even thinner. According to the latest statistics, China's trade surplus in April reached US $11.42 billion, far exceeding market estimates, because exports were strong in April while imports fell significantly. Although the trade structure has improved, it is expected that the overall surplus situation of the whole year will not change, and the appreciation of the RMB may accelerate under the pressure of a higher surplus, which will cause downstream textile enterprises to face a more difficult peripheral environment

after the May Day holiday, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the polyester market is still strong, and the focus of the price trend is still low, especially the price of FDY products continues to fall, with individual products falling about 300 yuan/ton. Last week, Jinan testing machine factory officially went to work today. On the fourth (5th) day, affected by the decline of crude oil and the continued sharp decline of PTA, the polyester market was distracted, the transaction varieties were uneven, the inventory pressure was still unable to get rid of, the enterprise was always in a state of low profits and losses, and its production enthusiasm was frustrated. At present, although the weaving start-up rate is barely stable, the purchasing power has not improved, and dealers, weaving mills and texturing enterprises are generally cautious. It is expected that in the later stage, the polyester market will still be difficult to get rid of the weak trend in the face of sales pressure and lack of cost support

in addition, the US dollar index continued to rise on the night of the 11th, and the rebound of the US dollar is a foregone conclusion in the short term. Affected by this, the crude oil will be adjusted back below $100, and the weakness of the upstream will continue to stimulate PTA to decline. Many people don't understand why to make a change experiment? Let's start with the experimental principle

in terms of spot goods, at present, the mainstream offer price in the East China domestic trade market is about 9850-9900 yuan/ton, and the offer price of downstream manufacturers is mostly 9800 yuan/ton. However, the offer price is still reluctant to sell, and the shipment intention is still hovering at 9850 yuan/ton. In terms of U.S. gold market, the sporadic offer price of Taiwan's goods source market is $1265-1270/ton, but the offer is mostly $1250/ton or less, the negotiation price is maintained at $1250-1260/ton, and the negotiation price of Korean goods source is maintained at $1250/ton or less

on the whole, although PTA has seen a slight rebound in technical form since this week, the overall fluctuation range is relatively narrow. Although the rebound is reflected, the strength is not strong, and the daily performance is relatively weak. At present, the power shortage in East China and the appreciation of RMB restrict the recovery of PTA downstream demand; And the weak rebound of upstream PX is difficult to form an effective cost support for PTA. In addition, the recent performance of bulk commodities is mostly oversold rebound, rather than the improvement of fundamentals, so the range and sustainability of its rise will be relatively limited. The continuous decline of the US index in the early stage also failed to boost the commodity trend, indicating that the market is weak or the current price is at a high level. However, for whatever reason, the current US dollar index shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding, which is bound to bring a new round of pressure on bulk commodities. Under the background of weakening of its upstream and downstream support at the same time, PTA is afraid to be difficult to stabilize by stopping the decline. The rebound space in the later stage is relatively limited. Many orders leave the market for the time being, and it is suggested to mainly sell short on high

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