The hottest rebar oversold, rebounded and remained

Rebar oversold rebound weakness unchanged

after China announced that it adopted "new Lite" in November to replace the new low resistance solid tire PMI jointly developed with Dow Chemical, rebar futures changed the previous decline and began to rebound. This trend is the same as that after the PMI was released in September and October. The short-term good news can boost rebar, but the deep-seated contradiction between supply and demand in the steel industry still shows no signs of easing. This rise is more a technical rise after the market mentality improves

weak decline in raw materials and weakening cost support

in November, iron concentrate powder, scrap steel and crude steel all fell to a certain extent driven by the weak steel demand. The swap settlement price of foreign iron ore, which has been strong, closed at $115/MT on December 4, down 5% from the peak of $121 in mid November. Due to price stickiness, the decline of foreign ore prices lags behind the decline of domestic steel prices

after three consecutive months of production reduction, coke production began to increase in October. During the 18th CPC National Congress, many coking enterprises nationwide stopped production and limited production. Now the 18th CPC National Congress has ended, and the phenomenon of enterprise resumption has increased. The increase of production in November will be a high probability event. Coke rebounded and peaked on October 23, and then it was supported to sort out in the range of 1530-1600 yuan/ton. From the perspective of technical form, 1600-1630 yuan/ton is under great pressure, and the probability of coke choosing to break down in the future is gradually increasing

steel prices rise, steel mills resume production

steel prices rise, steel mills resume production, output increases, which further depresses prices, and then forces the industry to reduce production. The steel industry has entered a vicious circle. With the rebound in steel prices in September this year, domestic crude steel production has also been maintained at a high level. According to the expansion trend of this production popularity, the price of rebar will further approach 3000 yuan/ton. With the passage of time, this possibility will become greater and greater

the decline of social inventory of steel is not beneficial

the reduction of inventory has a certain boost to the steel price, so it has always been a positive factor, but can the continuous decline of social inventory of steel be regarded as a positive factor? In the past decade, with the rapid development of real estate, the demand for steel has increased significantly year by year, and the social inventory will naturally rise. In addition, the social inventory of steel, as a financing tool for steel traders, has also increased the inventory increment to a certain extent. Today, the real estate regulation continues, and the function of steel as a financing tool is gradually degraded, that is to say, steel is gradually retreating from its financial attribute to its commodity attribute. The previous winter storage of steel traders has been difficult to reproduce, and the strengthening of bank credit management for steel traders makes steel traders feel the pressure of funds. From this perspective, the reduction of social inventory can not be regarded as a positive, on the contrary, it is a negative theme

formlabs also announced the news of reaching cooperation with 3shape

the PMI of the steel industry returned to the contraction range again

in November, the PMI index of the domestic steel industry fell to 49.2%, down 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, of which the production index was 50.1%, still in the expansion range, indicating that domestic steel mills are hoping to expand production capacity to achieve the goal of turning losses, which indicates that the output in the later period will remain at a high level. At the same time, the characteristics of steel consumption in the off-season appear. In November, the new order index of the steel industry was 46.5%, down 8.9 percentage points from the previous month. This index rose continuously in the previous three months and returned to the expansion range in October, but fell sharply back to the contraction range in November, indicating that the current steel industry has entered the traditional off-season and the demand growth is weak. In November, the new export order index also returned to the contraction range, indicating that China's steel exports experienced a high level in September and October, and faced the risk of contraction in the later period. The import and export data of the customs in November can support this

market outlook

from the technical chart, the recent rebound channel on the weekly K-line of steel is somewhat similar to the rebound channel after the steel can perfectly fit the specific car interior structure bottomed out in October 2011. According to the time running law, this round of rebound is not over yet, and it is still expected to run in the weekly K-line rising channel in the later stage. However, the slope of this channel is very gentle, indicating that the rise in steel prices will be more and more difficult. From the perspective of midline trading, it is not recommended to enter the market for a rebound, but to wait for the market to enter and short after the rebound